Global crop outlook fuels concerns over wheat and edible oil supplies in Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on imported essential commodities such as wheat, soybeans, crude soybean oil and palm oil leaves the country vulnerable to domestic price shocks, according to the latest outlook from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The USDA’s August 2026 World Agricultural Production and related commodity reports present a mixed picture of global crop production. While some major producing countries are expecting strong harvests, others are facing setbacks due to extreme heat, drought and other adverse weather conditions.

Global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year is projected at 819.3 million tonnes, down from 843.4 million tonnes in 2025/26, according to the USDA.

The decline is particularly significant for Bangladesh, which relies heavily on imports to meet domestic wheat demand.

Economist and researcher Dr Jahangir Alam Khan told the Daily Sun that Bangladesh could face higher import costs if global commodity prices remain elevated, putting additional pressure on the national budget and potentially constraining the country’s ability to secure adequate supplies.

“If imports fall short, it could have two major effects domestically,” he said.

“First, it could create a food security problem. Second, domestic prices could rise significantly, pushing food inflation even higher,” he said.

Bangladesh has been grappling with elevated food inflation for the past four years, he noted. Referring to World Bank assessments, he said the country remains in the “red zone” in terms of food inflation and that any further increase could prolong the situation.

He also pointed to Bangladesh’s dependence on imported soybeans, crude soybean oil and palm oil, saying domestic prices are exposed not only to global commodity prices but also to freight and import costs and exchange-rate fluctuations.

“In such a situation, our biggest need is to become as self-sufficient as possible in food production,” the economist said. “We need to focus on domestic production and provide greater support to local producers. Subsidies should be increased to boost domestic output and reduce our dependence on the global food market.”

USDA estimates show that Bangladesh imported around 7.6 million tonnes of wheat in 2025/26, making it one of the world’s major wheat-importing countries.

The European Union, among the world’s leading wheat-producing regions, is expected to produce 134.2 million tonnes in 2026/27, about 8% below the previous year’s record output.

EU wheat yields are projected at 5.66 tonnes per hectare, down 7% from last year’s record. Prolonged heat and dry conditions in western Europe have already weakened crop prospects, while France’s production forecast was reduced by 5% from the previous month.

Brazil is expected to experience a steeper decline. Its 2026/27 wheat production is forecast at 6.1 million tonnes, down 23% from the previous year and 28% below its five-year average. Lower profit margins and high input costs, particularly fertiliser prices, have discouraged planting, while the developing El Niño is creating additional production risks.

Russia’s wheat output is projected at 88.5 million tonnes, while Kazakhstan’s forecast has been raised to 16 million tonnes following favourable weather conditions. India and Pakistan are projected to produce 121 million tonnes and 29 million tonnes, respectively.

For Bangladesh, therefore, the immediate risk is not necessarily a worldwide wheat shortage but the country’s exposure to the location, cost and reliability of available supplies.

Freight rates, exchange-rate fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, export restrictions and sudden weather-related production losses could all influence the cost and availability of imported wheat.

Rice provides greater protection

Bangladesh is in a relatively stronger position in rice because it remains one of the world’s major rice-producing countries.

USDA data show that Bangladesh produced 36.6 million tonnes of milled rice in 2024/25, with output projected to reach 37.65 million tonnes in 2025/26.

India and China remain the world’s two largest rice producers, with their 2026/27 production forecast at about 150 million tonnes and 147 million tonnes, respectively.

For Bangladesh, robust domestic rice production provides an important buffer against shocks in international food markets. However, that protection could weaken if floods, excessive rainfall, drought, salinity, pests or extreme heat cause domestic yields to decline.

Global oilseed production set to rise

The USDA outlook also highlights important developments for Bangladesh’s edible-oil market.

Global oilseed production is forecast to reach a record 721.02 million tonnes in 2026/27, up from around 700 million tonnes in 2025/26. Soybean production alone is projected at 442.25 million tonnes, with Brazil and the United States expected to produce 186 million tonnes and 122.99 million tonnes, respectively.

Canada’s rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 22.5 million tonnes, while Argentina’s sunflowerseed output is projected at a record 8 million tonnes in the next crop.

For Bangladesh, however, rising global oilseed production does not necessarily guarantee lower edible-oil prices.

The government already relies on procurement programmes and international tenders to secure wheat supplies. According to the USDA’s Bangladesh office, the government planned to import 700,000 tonnes of wheat in MY 2025/26 and ultimately procured approximately that amount, mainly from the United States.

Greater global availability of a commodity does not automatically translate into lower prices in Bangladesh. Domestic prices can still be driven by exchange-rate movements, freight expenses and inefficiencies in local distribution.