OPEC+ is expected to keep its existing production targets unchanged

Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) are expected to leave current production levels unchanged when they convene for online meetings on Sunday, analysts told AFP.

The twice-yearly gathering comes amid lingering uncertainty over the short-term outlook for oil prices. Traders are watching for signals of progress in negotiations to resolve the war in Ukraine, which could eventually bring Russian crude back to global markets.

Since April, eight key OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have been raising output to reclaim market share amid growing competition from non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Canada and Guyana.

However, in early November, the V8 group said it would halt these increases in the first quarter of 2026 due to weaker seasonal demand, following a modest rise scheduled for December.

As a result, Sunday’s ministerial meeting is “unlikely to provide any major new catalysts for the market,” said Commerzbank analyst Barbara Lambrecht.

She noted that “a ceasefire would likely end reciprocal attacks on energy infrastructure, and sanctions might be eased or lifted,” which would reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently supporting higher prices.

But if talks stall, “(US President Donald) Trump may be forced to tighten sanctions again” on Russia’s oil sector, potentially driving prices upward, said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen of Global Risk Management.

The uncertain price outlook has strengthened expectations that OPEC+ will stick to its existing group-wide targets, in line with earlier signals from the eight core members.

At its last ministerial session, the alliance said it would review each member’s maximum sustainable production capacity, which will form the basis for quota allocations starting in 2027.

“There is some chatter about possible discussions on baseline production levels,” said HSBC analyst Kim Fustier.

However, she believes it is “still too early” for such talks, and that the group is likely to wait until 2026.