The next five years are likely to be the hottest ever recorded, the United Nations has warned

The world is likely to face record-breaking heat over the next five years, with global temperatures expected to repeatedly exceed a key climate safety threshold, according to new projections from the United Nations.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is a 75 percent chance that average global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. The threshold was set under the 2015 Paris climate agreement to help avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Scientists warn that even a slight rise beyond this limit could trigger severe consequences, including the destruction of ecosystems such as coral reefs and glaciers, as well as heightened risks to human health and livelihoods.

The report forecasts particularly rapid warming in the Arctic, where temperatures could rise by nearly 1.66 degrees Celsius by 2030 — far above the global average. Meanwhile, the Amazon region is expected to become hotter and drier, increasing the likelihood of droughts and wildfires.

Experts say the continued use of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas is accelerating global warming, contributing to more frequent and intense extreme weather events including floods, heatwaves and prolonged droughts.

Climate scientist Friederike Otto warned that even a single year above the 1.5-degree threshold could push societies beyond their capacity to cope with extreme conditions.

“We could see deadly heat, food shortages and more intense wildfires,” she said.

Short-term forecasts also indicate a possible strong El Niño event — a natural warming pattern in the Pacific Ocean that can further raise global temperatures. As a result, 2027 could overtake 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.

If current trends continue, scientists say the planet could warm at a faster pace than before, with temperatures increasing by around 0.25 degrees Celsius per decade, compared with previous rates of about 0.2 degrees.

Arctic warming at alarming pace

The Arctic is projected to warm around 3.5 times faster than the global average due to the rapid loss of ice and snow, which normally reflect sunlight back into space. As more ice melts, darker surfaces absorb additional heat, intensifying the warming cycle.

The WMO estimates that Arctic winters over the coming years could become significantly warmer than in previous decades, while summer sea ice is expected to continue shrinking.

Amazon faces increasing threats

The Amazon basin is also at growing risk of becoming hotter and drier, potentially fuelling more wildfires and disrupting water supplies for millions of people. Scientists warn the region could eventually shift from absorbing carbon dioxide to releasing it, further worsening climate change.

At the same time, parts of Africa’s Sahel region may experience heavier-than-normal rainfall, increasing the threat of flooding.

Global action still insufficient

UN officials say international efforts to curb climate change remain inadequate to slow rising temperatures.

“Global heating is still increasing faster than efforts to control it,” said UN climate chief Simon Stiell, pointing to extreme heat across regions such as Europe and India as evidence of mounting human and economic costs.

“From heatwaves and floods to wildfires and food shortages, every country is already facing serious impacts from climate change,” he added.