Rights group reports protest death toll in Iran rises to 538

Unrest in Iran has left at least 538 people dead, a rights group said on Sunday, as Tehran warned it would target U.S. military bases if President Donald Trump follows through on threats to intervene in support of protesters.

The Islamic Republic’s clerical leadership is facing its most serious challenge since 2022, with Trump repeatedly warning of intervention should force be used against demonstrators.

Citing activists inside and outside Iran, U.S.-based rights group HRANA said it had confirmed the deaths of 490 protesters and 48 members of the security forces, with more than 10,600 people arrested during two weeks of unrest.

Iran has not released an official death toll, and Reuters was unable to independently verify the figures.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that Trump was due to be briefed by advisers on Tuesday on a range of options, including military strikes, covert cyber operations, tougher sanctions and providing online assistance to anti-government groups.

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf cautioned Washington against what he called “a miscalculation.”

“Let us be clear: if Iran is attacked, the occupied territories (Israel), along with all U.S. bases and ships, will be legitimate targets,” said Qalibaf, a former commander of the elite Revolutionary Guards.

Authorities tighten crackdown

The protests erupted on December 28 over rising living costs before evolving into a broader challenge to the clerical establishment that has ruled since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Iranian authorities have accused the United States and Israel of instigating the unrest and called for a nationwide rally on Monday to denounce what state media described as “terrorist actions led by the United States and Israel.”

Information has been difficult to obtain since authorities imposed an internet blackout on Thursday.

Videos posted on social media on Saturday showed large crowds marching through Tehran at night, clapping and chanting. In footage from the northeastern city of Mashhad, smoke rose from street fires as masked protesters moved amid debris, with explosions audible. Reuters verified the locations.

State television broadcast images of dozens of body bags at Tehran’s coroner’s office, saying the deaths were caused by “armed terrorists,” and showed families waiting outside the Kahrizak Forensic Medical Centre to identify loved ones.

Three Israeli sources said Israel was on high alert for the possibility of U.S. intervention. An Israeli military official described the unrest as an internal Iranian matter but said the military was closely monitoring developments and prepared to respond “with power if required.”

Israel and Iran fought a 12-day conflict in June last year, briefly involving the United States, which struck Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israel and a U.S. air base in Qatar.

Iran denounces ‘rioters and terrorists’

The latest unrest comes as Iran continues to recover from last year’s war and faces a weakened regional position following setbacks to allies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah since the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attacks on Israel.

President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a televised interview that the United States and Israel were orchestrating destabilisation, accusing Iran’s enemies of bringing in “terrorists” who attacked mosques, banks and public property.

“I urge families not to allow their children to join rioters and terrorists who behead people and kill others,” he said, adding that the government was willing to listen to public grievances and address economic problems.

Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Iran specialist, said it was unlikely the protests would bring down the establishment. “It is more likely that the state eventually suppresses the unrest but emerges significantly weaker,” he told Reuters, noting the absence of an organised opposition.

State television aired funeral processions in western cities including Gachsaran and Yasuj for security personnel killed during the unrest, saying 30 members of the forces would be buried in Isfahan and six others had died in Kermanshah.

U.S. signals support

Trump said in a social media post on Saturday that “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!”

An Israeli source said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed potential U.S. intervention during a phone call on Saturday.

Reza Pahlavi, the U.S.-based son of Iran’s last shah, praised protesters’ “indescribable bravery” and urged them not to leave the streets. Maryam Rajavi, head of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran, said demonstrators had “reshaped Iran’s political landscape.”

Netanyahu said Israel was closely watching developments. “We all hope that the Persian nation will soon be freed from the yoke of tyranny,” he told a cabinet meeting.