Trump could face serious consequences if he attempts to take control of the Panama Canal

During his inauguration speech on Monday, US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to take control of the Panama Canal if necessary. The following day, Panama lodged a formal complaint with the United Nations over Trump's remarks.

If Trump were to attempt to seize the Panama Canal by force, especially through military means, it would go against decades of US foreign policy. Additionally, it would contradict Trump’s own stance, as he has consistently opposed military involvement in the Middle East. Launching a war to take the Canal might struggle to gain public support. Former President Jimmy Carter, who took the bold step of handing control of the Canal to Panama, signed the Panama Canal Treaty in 1977, which was ratified by the US Senate in 1978. This move was seen as a new chapter in US relations with Central America, ending a history of semi-colonialism in the region.

Since Carter's initiative, every US president—from Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton—has adhered to the terms of the treaty. On December 31, 1999, full control of the Panama Canal was transferred to Panama without incident. Today, the Canal remains crucial for global trade, with more than two-thirds of ships passing through American ports using it.

Before Trump's inauguration speech, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino had already stressed that Panama owns the Canal, responding to earlier comments from Trump about the Canal being under China's influence. Mulino emphasized Panama's sovereignty, saying, “Panama owns and will continue to own every square meter of the Panama Canal and its surrounding areas.” 

The United Nations also expressed concern over Trump’s threat, citing its declaration that prohibits "the threat or use of force against the political independence or territorial integrity of another state." 

Trump’s claims about China exploiting the Panama Canal, and the Panamanian government allowing it, were firmly denied by Mulino. In response, the Panamanian government launched an investigation into two Hong Kong-based companies operating in the Canal. 

If Trump were to follow through with a military operation to seize the Canal, it could quickly escalate into a full-scale war. The Panama Canal zone covers around 500 square miles, and with Panama's population of approximately 4.5 million, the US would need to deploy tens of thousands of troops to even attempt a successful operation. Given that military experts recommend 20 soldiers for every 1,000 inhabitants, the US would need roughly 90,000 troops to engage in such a conflict—hardly an operation that would be easily accepted by the public or Congress.

Moreover, even with a majority in Congress, Trump would likely face substantial opposition from lawmakers on both sides, making it difficult to pass a resolution for military action. A war over the Panama Canal would have catastrophic effects on the global economy, as about 6% of global trade passes through the Canal each year.

While Trump is known for taking unorthodox political positions, a military campaign to seize the Panama Canal would be risky, potentially disastrous, and is unlikely to gain the support necessary to succeed.