As the polls tighten, U.S. election campaigns focus on targeting overseas voters

Bob Vallier, who has lived outside the U.S. for most of the past 30 years, currently residing in Paris, has already cast his vote in his home state of Michigan for the upcoming November 5 election. Vallier, the LGBTQ+ caucus chair for Democrats Abroad, emphasized the global impact of U.S. elections: "I know that whatever happens in America affects the rest of the world because I've lived in the rest of the world," he said.

His vote, along with those of other Americans living abroad, could prove crucial in key battleground states like Michigan. The state is one of the most competitive in the election, with polls showing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris holding a slight lead over Republican Donald Trump. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) estimates that 1.6 million overseas U.S. voters are eligible to vote in seven key swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—which are expected to play a decisive role in the election's outcome.

Overseas voters tend to lean Democratic. In the 2020 election, three-quarters of those who used Vote From Abroad, a non-partisan voter assistance tool linked to the DNC, identified as Democrats. For the first time, the DNC has allocated approximately $300,000 to Democrats Abroad to help register American voters living overseas and bolster mail-in voting efforts. The group has also launched social media ads urging Americans abroad to submit their ballots. DNC spokesperson Maddy Mundy highlighted the importance of every vote, saying, "This election will be won on the margins, and every single vote counts."

On the Republican side, Donald Trump's campaign is also targeting expatriate voters. Earlier this month, Trump pledged to eliminate the double taxation of Americans living abroad, a move that could ease a significant burden for overseas citizens who are required to file U.S. taxes regardless of where they live. Although U.S. citizens abroad are exempt from taxes on the first $126,500 of earned income and eligible for some foreign tax credits, the process can be a bureaucratic headache. Zennon Kapron, a Singapore-based fintech consultant, said tax reform could influence his vote, adding, "For many Americans abroad, the only consistent interaction we have with the U.S. government is through the IRS every April."

Solomon Yue, CEO of Republicans Overseas, said the GOP has long fought for better tax policies for expatriates, believing this issue could significantly sway the overseas vote. However, despite Trump's promises on taxes, he has also accused Democrats, without evidence, of using the overseas vote to commit fraud. The Republican National Committee has targeted overseas voting in legal challenges in states like Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, which could limit the number of overseas ballots counted if successful.

One of the challenges in mobilizing overseas voters is low turnout. Despite estimates that the U.S. expatriate population ranges from 4.4 million to 9 million, only a small fraction votes. Unlike many other countries, U.S. voters cannot cast their ballots at embassies on Election Day. Instead, they must mail their ballots to the states where they are registered. In the 2020 election, less than 8% of eligible overseas voters participated, compared to 67% overall turnout.

To help overcome these barriers, volunteers in Paris have been setting up stands outside cafes to guide American citizens through the voter registration and mail-in ballot process. "The problem is that the instructions are not understandable," said Tanya, a retired lawyer and volunteer.

One voter, Claudie Le Corre, sought help at the stand after not receiving her ballot from New York, where she is registered. Concerned about being removed from the voter rolls, she re-registered, saying, "I am worried about the future, for our children, and all these populist movements—which include Donald Trump—worry me."