Can India withstand US and UK pressure regarding the Canada dispute?

The US and UK have intensified pressure on India to cooperate with Canada regarding the investigation into the murder of a Sikh separatist and Canadian citizen in British Columbia. Canadian officials have alleged that agents associated with the Indian government were involved in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent advocate for the Khalistan movement. In a recent parliamentary session, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated he was not looking to escalate tensions with India but emphasized that "India had violated Canada's sovereignty."

Trudeau asserted that the Indian government's actions represented a serious miscalculation regarding Canada's safety and sovereignty. In response to the escalating situation, both countries expelled each other’s top diplomats earlier this week.

The US has urged India to take Canada's allegations seriously and cooperate with its investigation. The UK also expressed its confidence in Canada's judicial system, indicating it is in close contact with Canadian officials regarding the situation.

An unnamed Indian Foreign Ministry official told DW that these allegations are unlikely to significantly affect India's relationships with the US or the UK. According to the official, India maintains strong ties with both countries and believes that tensions will ease without leading to major geopolitical repercussions. 

Experts echo this sentiment, noting that while the controversy may harm India's global reputation, it is unlikely to derail its relationships with its Western allies. Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, President of Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies, pointed out that India is likely to maintain its current position on the allegations without retreating.

Meanwhile, India is continuing to strengthen its ties with the US, recently signing a $4 billion deal for the purchase of armed drones. The UK is also pursuing closer relations with India, with a free trade agreement reportedly nearing completion.

C. Raja Mohan, a visiting professor at Singapore's Institute of South Asian Studies, highlighted that India's relations with the Five Eyes alliance members are currently at a historical high point. He stated that there is no risk of India becoming isolated by the US and the UK, given their deep connections.

In contrast, India's approach to Canada’s accusations differs from its response to similar allegations from the US. New Delhi is currently cooperating with US authorities concerning an alleged plot against another Khalistan advocate in the US. Former high commissioner to Canada Ajay Bisaria remarked that the US has handled this situation with more diplomatic finesse compared to Canada. He emphasized that recent developments would not significantly impact India's geopolitical standing with these nations, as India remains a trusted ally.