Bangladesh goes to the polls in the world’s first Gen Z–inspired election

For years under former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s opposition had little visibility on the streets during elections, often boycotting polls or being marginalised through mass arrests of senior leaders. Ahead of Thursday’s vote, that dynamic has flipped.

Hasina’s Awami League is now banned, and many young people who played a key role in toppling her government during the 2024 uprising say the upcoming election will be the Muslim-majority country’s first genuinely competitive poll since 2009, when she began her 15-year rule.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is widely tipped to emerge victorious, though it faces a strong challenge from a coalition led by the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami. A newly formed party driven by Gen Z activists under 30 has aligned with Jamaat after failing to convert its anti-Hasina street mobilisation into a viable electoral base.

BNP chief Tarique Rahman told Reuters his party, which is contesting 292 of the 300 parliamentary seats, was confident of winning enough seats to form a government.

Analysts say a decisive outcome in the 12 February vote—rather than a fragmented result—is crucial to restoring stability in the country of 175 million. Hasina’s ouster sparked months of unrest and disrupted major industries, including the garments sector, where Bangladesh is the world’s second-largest exporter.

The election result will also shape Bangladesh’s geopolitical balance, particularly the roles of regional powers China and India.

“Opinion polls suggest the BNP has an advantage, but a large share of voters remains undecided,” said Parvez Karim Abbasi, executive director of Dhaka’s Centre for Governance Studies. “Several factors will determine the result, including how Generation Z—around a quarter of the electorate—votes, as their choices will be highly influential.”

Across the country, black-and-white posters and banners bearing the BNP’s “sheaf of paddy” symbol and Jamaat’s “scales” hang from poles, trees and roadside walls, alongside those of independent candidates. Party shacks on street corners, draped in campaign emblems, blast election songs—an unmistakable contrast to past polls dominated by the Awami League’s “boat” symbol.

Opinion surveys suggest the once-banned Jamaat could secure its strongest electoral performance yet, even if it falls short of victory. The party had opposed Bangladesh’s India-backed independence from Pakistan in 1971.

Analysts say the verdict will influence Bangladesh’s foreign relations, particularly as China’s influence has grown while India’s has weakened. Hasina, widely seen as pro-India, fled to New Delhi after her ouster and remains there.

While the BNP is viewed by some analysts as relatively more aligned with India than Jamaat, a Jamaat-led government could tilt closer to Pakistan, India’s long-standing rival. Jamaat’s Gen Z ally has criticised what it calls “New Delhi’s hegemony” and recently held meetings with Chinese diplomats.

Jamaat, which advocates governance based on Islamic principles, says it is not aligned with any foreign power. BNP leader Rahman has said his party would maintain friendly relations with any country that serves Bangladesh’s national interests.

Bangladesh—one of the world’s most densely populated countries and home to high levels of extreme poverty—has been grappling with soaring inflation, declining reserves and sluggish investment. These pressures have pushed it to seek major external financing since 2022, including billions of dollars from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Corruption tops voter concerns among the country’s 128 million electorate, followed by inflation, according to a survey by the Communication & Research Foundation and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies.

Analysts say Jamaat’s reputation for clean governance has boosted its appeal more than its religious ideology.

“Voters show strong intent to participate, prioritise corruption and economic issues over religious symbolism, and expect leaders who demonstrate care, competence and accountability,” the survey found.

Despite this, BNP’s Tarique Rahman—son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia—is widely seen as the frontrunner to lead the next government. If the Jamaat-led alliance performs better, its chief Shafiqur Rahman could emerge as a contender for the top post.

Mohammad Rakib, 21, a first-time voter, said he hoped the next government would protect free expression and voting rights.

“People were exhausted by the Awami League. They couldn’t even vote in national elections,” he said. “I hope whoever comes to power ensures freedom of expression and the right to vote.”