The self-sabotaging policies of Bashar al-Assad

• Assad's downfall reflects the typical trajectory of aging, authoritarian regimes in decline.
• Syria becomes part of the third wave of emerging fundamentalist movements.

Syria's Dual Transformations

1. The Fall of Assad's Regime

   • Syria has experienced two transformative events: the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime and the rise of "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS).
   • Assad's downfall is part of the broader decline of fascist regimes from the 1960s, akin to Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar al-Gaddafi.

2. The Rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

   • The emergence of HTS marks the third wave of fundamentalist movements, following:
     • The first wave led by Ruhollah Khomeini in Tehran in the 1970s.
     • The second wave during the 2011 revolutions, featuring groups like Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, Ennahda in Tunisia, and the Houthis in Yemen.
   • Syria now faces this third wave, although the long-term impact remains uncertain.

Delayed but Inevitable Collapse

3. Prolonged Survival Through External Support

   • Assad’s regime, expected to collapse by 2014, endured another decade due to Iranian and Russian intervention.

4. Structural Weakness

   • Assad's one-man, minority-led, socialist, Ba’athist regime, aligned with Iran, lacked a cohesive national identity.
   • Institutional decay and loss of support from core groups like the Ba’athists and Alawites hastened its decline.

5. Strategic Missteps

   • Assad's policies made Syria the corridor between Tehran and its influence zones, aggravating tensions as Israel-Iran conflicts escalated.
   • Ignorance of shifting regional dynamics, including the October 7, 2023, events, weakened his position further.

Key Crises Mishandled by Assad

6. Refugee Crisis Mismanagement

   • Assad dismissed the danger posed by the three million Syrian refugees in Turkey, who became a recruitment base for opposition forces.
   • He ignored Turkey’s calls for reconciliation or refugee return, failing to recognize the threat this posed to his regime.

7. Challenges from Armed Opposition and Israel

   • Assad underestimated the combined challenges from Turkey, Syrian armed opposition, and indirect confrontation with Israel.
   • These crises were beyond Syria’s capacity to manage, culminating in systemic collapse.

Historical Context and Shifting Dynamics

8. Syria-Turkey Relations
   • Historically marked by tension, the relationship under Bashar differed from his father Hafez’s strategic pragmatism.
   • For instance, Hafez capitulated to Turkey’s demands during the Abdullah Ocalan crisis in 1998, understanding the power dynamics favoring Turkey, Israel, and the US.

Future Prospects Post-Assad

9. Implications of Assad’s Fall
   • The collapse of Assad’s regime would facilitate the return of millions of refugees.
   • Turkey’s influence in Syria is poised to expand, aiming to shape the country into an ally, mirroring Iran’s strategic hold over Iraq.