Arakan Army Controls Rakhine: Government Considers New Rohingya Policy

Bangladesh is reevaluating its Rohingya policy following seven years of unsuccessful repatriation efforts and shifting political dynamics in both Bangladesh and Myanmar. Since November 2022, Myanmar's ethnic rebel group, the Arakan Army (AA), has taken control of 11 out of Rakhine's 17 townships, including Maungdaw, a significant area for the Rohingya. The AA now oversees over 80% of Rakhine and the entire 271km border with Bangladesh, positioning itself as the de facto authority in the region.  

Bangladesh's interim government, committed to democracy and human rights, is exploring semi-formal communication with the AA, acknowledging its potential role in future Rohingya repatriation. However, officials have emphasized maintaining diplomatic ties with Myanmar while engaging regional powers like China and India for support. Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain stated that although Bangladesh cannot formally engage with the AA as a non-state actor, practical cooperation may be unavoidable given the AA’s growing influence in Rakhine.

The Rohingya crisis has grown increasingly complex, with over 60,000 new arrivals since July, bringing the total Rohingya population in Bangladesh to over 1 million. Security challenges in the camps, including drug smuggling and human trafficking, have escalated as funding dwindles. By September 30, only 53% of the $852.4 million requested by the UN for Rohingya aid had been received. Food shortages and inadequate opportunities for youth further exacerbate tensions, with some turning to illicit activities.

In response, the interim government has prioritized skills development and education in the camps to prepare Rohingya for eventual repatriation. Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has also proposed a UN-guaranteed "safe zone" in Rakhine to facilitate repatriation and prevent further displacement. This concept, along with strategies to mobilize international funding, will be key topics at a UN conference on the Rohingya crisis early next year.

Bangladesh is also exploring broader diplomatic measures, including engaging Myanmar's National Unity Government and pursuing international accountability through the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court. At the same time, officials stress the importance of maintaining peaceful bilateral relations with Myanmar while ensuring regional stability.

To address the crisis comprehensively, experts have called for a unified national policy and collaboration with Southeast Asian nations such as Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore. Bangladesh aims to leverage international forums to draw attention back to the Rohingya issue while balancing its diplomatic, humanitarian, and security challenges.